Overall Assessment of Future Group Development.
At the time of writing in November 2011, forecasts of global economic growth in 2012 have taken on a much less optimistic note. In a statement outlining its own view, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) forecasts a dramatic increase in the overall level of uncertainty affecting the global economy.
Wincor Nixdorf detects a corresponding uncertainty in the European banking market, above all, and intends to adopt a cautious, wait-and-see approach. It is impossible to deliver a reliable forecast, as we cannot foresee the extent to which more positive developments might help to counterbalance the current uncertainty.
Accordingly, Wincor Nixdorf believes that a small decrease in net sales is possible in fiscal 2011/2012, as is an increase slightly above the level of growth in 2010/2011.
Given the prevailing uncertainty in late fall 2011, it is not possible to produce a reliable forecast of the extent to which our net sales performance in 2011/2012 might impact on our operating result (EBITA (Glossary) ).
The impact on EBITA could in fact be substantial, above all on account of a reduction in economies of scale, mix effects (e.g., products and regions) as well as the cost of potential structural adjustments. In line with our estimate of net sales for fiscal 2011/2012, we believe a sharp downturn and a modest increase in profit compared to the last fiscal year are equally possible.
Notwithstanding the above annual estimates, in percentage terms we expect the first quarter of fiscal 2011/2012 to produce a decline in net sales and a double-figure downturn in operating profit compared to the positive results achieved over the same period in 2010/2011.
Looking further ahead to fiscal 2012/2013, as yet there are no signs of a sustained improvement in the business environment. We believe it is entirely possible, reflecting developments in the global economy, that the current level of uncertainty surrounding our future net sales and profits will continue.