In the fall of 2009, the sharp decline in the global economy that has marked the previous months seems to have come to a halt, at least for the moment. In its “World Economic Outlook,” the International Monetary Fund (IMF) points to signs of renewed growth at global level. The key factors here, it believes, are economic growth in Asia and the fact that most countries benefited from a more stable performance.
According to the experts, one of the main reasons for this improvement is the large-scale availability of government aid in many countries around the world. However, the IMF’s assessment also contains elements of uncertainty. It is difficult, for example, to predict the future direction of economic development without the supporting effects of government programs.
For Germany, the IMF anticipates only a modest improvement of 0.3% in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2010, after the expected sharp fall of 5.3% in 2009. Europe is also likely to experience a comparably sluggish recovery, with GDP in the eurozone growing by just 0.3% compared to the anticipated 4.2% downturn in 2009. The IMF identifies increasing signs of stabilization in the U.S. economy, although there remains a risk of a further downturn. For 2010, the IMF expects the U.S. economy to grow by 1.5% following its anticipated 2.7% slide in 2009. The IMF believes that the global economy will expand by 3.1% in 2010.
Once again, the main drivers of this growth will be the emerging markets, which the IMF expects will expand by 5.1%, led by China (9%), India (6.4%) and Brazil (3.5%).
