During the global banking and financial market crisis, the Retail Banking industry has proven to be a relatively stable factor within a banking portfolio that at times has shown considerable volatility. As a result, in the medium term at least, we can expect a stimulation of business in this industry, which has now been experiencing a renaissance for some years. Many retail banks are preparing themselves for continued and equally strong competition and to expand their customer base, or at least use it as a platform for further growth. In this context, it is likely to see a particular emphasis on the “cost” factor. In the view of many banks, these developments will be accelerated as a result of mergers and takeovers in the banking industry, especially in the wake of the financial market crisis. Nevertheless, it is possible that this industry will also be affected in the short term by the negative situation in the banking industry as a whole and by a possible slowdown in the real economy.

In the medium term, we can also expect that competition for customers and the necessity to reduce costs will continue to determine the Retail Industry in the established markets. On past evidence, too, this industry reacts much more sensitively to economical mitigations as regards readiness to invest. This can also happen at short notice. It is conceivable that with consumers less inclined to spend, the impact on the home improvement and clothing sectors, for example, may be greater than that on food sales.

In most of the emerging countries, it is expected, at least in the medium term, that increasing prosperity will lead to an expansion of the branch networks of banks and retailers despite weaker economic growth.